Afaik it's based on Fedora 12.
Recent activity on the EPEL repo mailing list [1] seems to indicate that they plan to branch EPEL-6 packages from Fedora 12.
I guess that they are well informed, so this supports the idea that Fedora 12 will be the basis for RHEL 6.
[1] https://www.redhat.com/archives/epel-devel-list/2010-March/msg00078.html "we will be branching EL-6 branches from F-12 branches"